Quite good coverage. I think I'm likely to live 10 more years, but 20 is a stretch. However, I just got my latest blood test back, and I'm in ridiculous good shape for my age. My glucose is just a tad high, and my kidney functions are a tad low, but everything else is still in the green, Sometimes robustly so.
Considering the Singularity does tend to make planning even more complicated than previously.
We're personally now in a place where I can confidently tell my wife that if our near (less than 10 years) future turns bad it will be worse for well over 90% of the US population. In that case even a large percentage of the top 10% of the wealthy will find that wealth didn't protect them. And some of those at the bottom may make it because they know how to operate in such a case. And I have made provision for family down to my great-grandchildren. My extended family (siblings and their descendants) all seem to be acting in a similar fashion. Despite moving from rural poverty in the early 50s to the middle-class and sometimes above that, we have mostly maintained the habits we learned then, and so have, in most cases, our children. With only a couple of exceptions we're all prepared to "pull back" to small acreages and live off the land and off the grid (and protect ourselves) if need be.
Given human nature I rather expect to see some sort of shakeout as the "elites" finally stumble over Reality and try to adjust. I don't see that many of them making it, if it comes to that. And the Singularity will arrive willy-nilly (a term not used often enough now). I expect it to start slowly and gain speed as the frightened elites push their foot soldiers to rather a lot of violence. I think that those who survive relatively intact will then be ready to take actual advantage of whatever the Singularity brings. And it has been my experience that few among the "ruling elite" are smart enough to understand what will be happening. It will get interesting in the worst meaning of that term.
Hang in there, Bill. I hope you make it. I hope I do, too. And if worst comes to worst you're invited to join us where we stand. Bring your mind and anything else useful you have when TSHTF.
Thanks, Jorg! I'm going to do an essay shortly discussing the unholy trinity of Generations Theory/Fourth Turning, Tech Singularity, and the ongoing collapse of the Vampire Empire. It's going to be an interesting race to the finish.
I'm 73 now, and although my father lived to 93, I don't expect to match his lifespan. And I'm not sure I want to. About 2 years ago, I finally began to think of myself as being "old". A long youthful life might be a great thing, but I'm of the opinion that a long "old-aged" life would be a curse.
Ken, I can't tell you how many times I've addressed this issue. Suffice to say, many. A long and youthful life is exactly what Kurzweil and others, including myself, are looking forward to and expecting. Kurzweil points to nanobiotech that literally remakes our bodies down to the genetic level, not just curing all disease, but eliminating even the possibility of it. Rewind your telomeres back to the state they were in when you were twelve, and never ran out of energy? No problem. Want all the gunk of decades cleared out of your brain so that it functions as well as it did when you were sixteen, but with the wisdom of your nineties? Step right up, sir.
I don't know about Kurzweil, but if I can make it through the next 25 years, I plan to spend the next two hundred as a twenty year old version of myself, but even more handsome, if such a thing is even possible ;^), while I figure out what I want to be and do when I grow up.
I'm not quite sure why, but whenever I talk about life extension, this is the first objection most people come up with. But it's not at all what I and those like me are talking about.
Nature's nanobiotech is fairly competent at removing the crud from our aging bodies and preventing serious illness. Not sure why we need to develop or manufacture artificial versions of what already exists (but is not used in the current medical system) when the artificial versions usually come with a long list of issues and undesirable side effects. Transcendental meditation has also been shown to have rejuvenating effects and improve our ability to refrain from damaging habits.
To be honest, I don't trust the nanobiotech solutions that are and will be offered up by pharmaceutical corporations that IMO have never really had our good health in mind, only the profit motive derived from superficially and temporarily fixing symptoms.
How can we truly know the long term effects of nanobiotech until a longer than average life has been lived under its influence? And the offspring? Will this tech be passed on? What then? The whole concept is incredibly burdened with generational risk to the point that we could be entertaining the extinction of the human race as we know lest we tread carefully.
Even though the subtext of my substack is the examinatin of downside risks, which are all too often ignored in the white heat of whatever is the current Good Idea, I do so not out of any personal deification of safety as a guiding principal, but simply as a recognition that reality is a beautiful tree with often-hidden thorns. One ignores the possibiity of such thorns at one's peril.
But this isn't to say that the potential existence of thorns precludes enjoying the wonders of the tree. In other words, I don't advocate opting out of the potential benefits of progress for a life by the wayside, but rather a full and willing participation, albeit with one eye peeled for possible problems.
Informed risk-taking is something humans are fully wired to undertake. As for the extinction of the human race, nanobiotech will just have to take a number and stand in line, behind nuclear Armageddon, GM viruses brewed up in some kid's basement laboratory, and a previously undetected ball of rock and ice the size of Los Angeles abruptly making our close personal acquaitance.
The precautionary principle, judiciously and rationally applied, is one thing. But a precautionary paralysis principle is quite another.
I only have to observe the rapid adoption of smartphones as a detachable (with difficulty) human appendage and how quickly much of the world's population rolled up their sleeves to inject experimental substances into their bodies to know that we're already very far down the road of which you speak!
Quite good coverage. I think I'm likely to live 10 more years, but 20 is a stretch. However, I just got my latest blood test back, and I'm in ridiculous good shape for my age. My glucose is just a tad high, and my kidney functions are a tad low, but everything else is still in the green, Sometimes robustly so.
Considering the Singularity does tend to make planning even more complicated than previously.
We're personally now in a place where I can confidently tell my wife that if our near (less than 10 years) future turns bad it will be worse for well over 90% of the US population. In that case even a large percentage of the top 10% of the wealthy will find that wealth didn't protect them. And some of those at the bottom may make it because they know how to operate in such a case. And I have made provision for family down to my great-grandchildren. My extended family (siblings and their descendants) all seem to be acting in a similar fashion. Despite moving from rural poverty in the early 50s to the middle-class and sometimes above that, we have mostly maintained the habits we learned then, and so have, in most cases, our children. With only a couple of exceptions we're all prepared to "pull back" to small acreages and live off the land and off the grid (and protect ourselves) if need be.
Given human nature I rather expect to see some sort of shakeout as the "elites" finally stumble over Reality and try to adjust. I don't see that many of them making it, if it comes to that. And the Singularity will arrive willy-nilly (a term not used often enough now). I expect it to start slowly and gain speed as the frightened elites push their foot soldiers to rather a lot of violence. I think that those who survive relatively intact will then be ready to take actual advantage of whatever the Singularity brings. And it has been my experience that few among the "ruling elite" are smart enough to understand what will be happening. It will get interesting in the worst meaning of that term.
Hang in there, Bill. I hope you make it. I hope I do, too. And if worst comes to worst you're invited to join us where we stand. Bring your mind and anything else useful you have when TSHTF.
Thanks, Jorg! I'm going to do an essay shortly discussing the unholy trinity of Generations Theory/Fourth Turning, Tech Singularity, and the ongoing collapse of the Vampire Empire. It's going to be an interesting race to the finish.
Yeah. Not sure if I want to be around to see thee conclusion or not.
I'm 73 now, and although my father lived to 93, I don't expect to match his lifespan. And I'm not sure I want to. About 2 years ago, I finally began to think of myself as being "old". A long youthful life might be a great thing, but I'm of the opinion that a long "old-aged" life would be a curse.
Ken, I can't tell you how many times I've addressed this issue. Suffice to say, many. A long and youthful life is exactly what Kurzweil and others, including myself, are looking forward to and expecting. Kurzweil points to nanobiotech that literally remakes our bodies down to the genetic level, not just curing all disease, but eliminating even the possibility of it. Rewind your telomeres back to the state they were in when you were twelve, and never ran out of energy? No problem. Want all the gunk of decades cleared out of your brain so that it functions as well as it did when you were sixteen, but with the wisdom of your nineties? Step right up, sir.
I don't know about Kurzweil, but if I can make it through the next 25 years, I plan to spend the next two hundred as a twenty year old version of myself, but even more handsome, if such a thing is even possible ;^), while I figure out what I want to be and do when I grow up.
I'm not quite sure why, but whenever I talk about life extension, this is the first objection most people come up with. But it's not at all what I and those like me are talking about.
Nature's nanobiotech is fairly competent at removing the crud from our aging bodies and preventing serious illness. Not sure why we need to develop or manufacture artificial versions of what already exists (but is not used in the current medical system) when the artificial versions usually come with a long list of issues and undesirable side effects. Transcendental meditation has also been shown to have rejuvenating effects and improve our ability to refrain from damaging habits.
To be honest, I don't trust the nanobiotech solutions that are and will be offered up by pharmaceutical corporations that IMO have never really had our good health in mind, only the profit motive derived from superficially and temporarily fixing symptoms.
How can we truly know the long term effects of nanobiotech until a longer than average life has been lived under its influence? And the offspring? Will this tech be passed on? What then? The whole concept is incredibly burdened with generational risk to the point that we could be entertaining the extinction of the human race as we know lest we tread carefully.
Even though the subtext of my substack is the examinatin of downside risks, which are all too often ignored in the white heat of whatever is the current Good Idea, I do so not out of any personal deification of safety as a guiding principal, but simply as a recognition that reality is a beautiful tree with often-hidden thorns. One ignores the possibiity of such thorns at one's peril.
But this isn't to say that the potential existence of thorns precludes enjoying the wonders of the tree. In other words, I don't advocate opting out of the potential benefits of progress for a life by the wayside, but rather a full and willing participation, albeit with one eye peeled for possible problems.
Informed risk-taking is something humans are fully wired to undertake. As for the extinction of the human race, nanobiotech will just have to take a number and stand in line, behind nuclear Armageddon, GM viruses brewed up in some kid's basement laboratory, and a previously undetected ball of rock and ice the size of Los Angeles abruptly making our close personal acquaitance.
The precautionary principle, judiciously and rationally applied, is one thing. But a precautionary paralysis principle is quite another.
I only have to observe the rapid adoption of smartphones as a detachable (with difficulty) human appendage and how quickly much of the world's population rolled up their sleeves to inject experimental substances into their bodies to know that we're already very far down the road of which you speak!
It's not looking good to me so far.