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Fabius Minarchus's avatar

It depends on the type of third party he creates. If he creates a sane centrist party that gives Democrats some competition in deep Blue districts, it would be a very good thing. Liberals morph into dangerous whackos when they lack credible competition.

On the other hand, if his new party focuses on playing the spoiler to make lavender RINOs lose, that would be a terrible thing.

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David's avatar

For structural reasons--which can be summarized as "winner-take-all" and "first-past-the-post"--third parties have had a serious uphill struggle, especially in the contemporary era. And--as you recognize--their electoral impact is mostly to split the majority coalition and allow parties that otherwise would never have had a chance to slip between the cracks.

Abraham Lincoln won in 1860--with 39.6 percent of the popular vote, the lowest ever--because the majority Democrats de facto split into two parties: Stephen Douglas's Northern Democrats and John Breckenridge's Southern Democrats. John Bell Hood's Constitutional Union Party was almost entirely irrelevant, only gaining traction in a handful of states where Lincoln was not even on the ballot: in effect, there were two separate presidential contests, Lincoln/Douglas in the North and Breckenridge/Hood in the South and border states.

The late-19th century agrarian parties won a few states but did not actually affect any election outcomes. Eventually they merged with the Democrats.

George Wallace's American Party won several states that might--might!--have voted Democrat but at the time were widely viewed as in transition to the Republican Party.

The closest any third party came to affecting the outcome of an election was probably Ross Perot--the Elon Musk of his time--in 1992, and--to the extent he did so--it splintered the GOP coalition that had elected Reagan twice and George H.W. Bush once, allowing Bill Clinton into the presidency.

You'll note that none of these third-party movements actually WON. All they did was to tip the election against the presumed favorite.

I prophecy that if Musk actually starts up a third party, he will destroy any chance of fixing what's wrong with our country...and will make himself look like a buffoon in the process. Feel free to look up how that worked out for Ross the Cross Boss if you don't believe me.

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