It may be that the wolf-crying was totally true, only that the wolf was far away, so, the wolf-criers warned of the danger of letting the wolf keep coming closer, and the others, well, since the wolf was far away, why bother if life is so good ...
I disagree with your take on Millennials. The participation trophies aside, most of them came of age and sought employment around the 2008-2009 GFC. Good luck there. Then right when they are ready to start family formation, Covid hits. They have dealt with some hard times. As a generation they excel at teamwork and cooperation. They might be exactly what we need going forward.
Don't undersell the Gen Z population. Many of them have developed real-life skills since the Covid lockdowns. And, they have gotten used to living on less.
So, maybe, SOME of them will survive. With the assistance of family, some will do better. One of the reasons that social collapse happens in the 4th Turning is that the eldest generations died out.
Today, older generations survive, in reasonably good health, for longer. That ability to pass on knowledge of bad times may extend longer.
The extremity of the sucking of the heroic qualities might be overexaggerated some. Perception from social media taints a lot. Certainly feels accurate on the lack of resilience though. That I seek to fix for myself.
If the dollar dies, gold won't be of that much use, because people won't trust that it's real. If you want to be the key person, figure out how to do gold assays.
The GunTuber Paul Harrell just posted two "Top five firearms for TEOTWAWKI," a short version at around 23 minutes and a two hour long version. He stayed away (in the short one anyway) from discussing what form the collapse may take, simply making some general points about why everyone would need firearms and what he should prioritize.
Many preppers speak of the "Zombie Apocalypse," but I doubt anyone seriously expects a zombie outbreak. On the other hand, there are people who believe in the Flat Earth, or that Joe Biden received 81 millions votes in 2020, so who knows for sure? My belief is that talking of zombies keeps discussion of a potentially dark topic light, and also represents the worst case scenario. That is, if you can handle a zombie outbreak you ought to be set for whatever actually happens.
As for myself, I would not call myself a prepper, although I do have cases of long shelf life rations in the garage. That's just common sense, especially living in a rural environment. I think everyone, urban or rural, should be prepared to withstand a two week disruption of service, at minimum. City people are by nature unprepared for this mindset, as their solution to every disruption is "Call the city and wait for the man in the truck to show up and fix it." Of course, if TEOTWAWKI does happen, two weeks is nothing but a cushion to get ready for the real survival scenario. I don't know what's coming, but I am not optimistic about it.
I don't understand how you can count anything about the US and its turnings while ignoring the greatest cataclysm the planet faced in maybe 3000 years, and that was the Great War. We are still living with its aftermath, as every issue people are facing now is still a result of that detritus of that societal upheaval where Europe lost faith in being. There was no single 20 year period there culminating in that; but okay, let's pretend. But the next 80 years produced more upheaval, not less, though you can argue that the fall of communism in Europe was the fourth turning of the cycle of almost endless war that was the 20th c.
In any case, where we are now isn't the fourth of anything. Globalism was founded on the fall of European communism and the rise of Chinese totalitarianism. It began in the 1990s, whether you date it to the fall of the Berlin Wall and Tiananmen Square or the fall of the Soviet Union. But globalism has not made it even 40 years yet.
A better range of times would look at French Revolution to Napoleon to Congress of Venna in 1814, approximately 30 years, which led Europe under basic stability for 30 years until the revolutions of 1848, which all failed and cemented the powers of their day for another 60 before the cataclysm.
War was a constant in that time, too.
The fall of European communism is much more like the Congress of Vienna, and our resistance to globalism now is much like 1848, perhaps with the same crushing outcome.
It's good to remember that the upheaval of our own 1960s involved as much violence and as much decadence and sickness in our cities in the 1970s. It took 16 years from the assassination of JFK until the election of RWR and things were swinging up again.
Here is where I'd look for young heroes: the environmental movement. They may be lefty in outlook, but they do things with real stuff, and are big believers in self and community sufficiency. An alliance between the froggy Right and the eco hippie Left is in order.
Clearly there are grounds for alliance on the subject of the gurlimanification chemicals which blunt heroic potential. I would also note that the "Buy Local" battle cry of the greenies who form food coops is Trumpism Extra Strength. The eco hippies are also known to do things such as create local currencies.
Yes, the call for green energy could lead to a nightmare of interconnected grids for load balancing plus greater dependency on the grid in order to fuel electric cars.
But there is the flip side of green energy: solar panels to get off the grid. Biofuels to disconnect from Big Oil. Self sufficient communities to reduce the need for transportation, etc.
It may be that the wolf-crying was totally true, only that the wolf was far away, so, the wolf-criers warned of the danger of letting the wolf keep coming closer, and the others, well, since the wolf was far away, why bother if life is so good ...
I disagree with your take on Millennials. The participation trophies aside, most of them came of age and sought employment around the 2008-2009 GFC. Good luck there. Then right when they are ready to start family formation, Covid hits. They have dealt with some hard times. As a generation they excel at teamwork and cooperation. They might be exactly what we need going forward.
A good companion piece:
https://hwfo.substack.com/p/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical
Don't undersell the Gen Z population. Many of them have developed real-life skills since the Covid lockdowns. And, they have gotten used to living on less.
So, maybe, SOME of them will survive. With the assistance of family, some will do better. One of the reasons that social collapse happens in the 4th Turning is that the eldest generations died out.
Today, older generations survive, in reasonably good health, for longer. That ability to pass on knowledge of bad times may extend longer.
I think that covid (or should we say - the covid response) qualifies as a fourth turning.
The extremity of the sucking of the heroic qualities might be overexaggerated some. Perception from social media taints a lot. Certainly feels accurate on the lack of resilience though. That I seek to fix for myself.
If the dollar dies, gold won't be of that much use, because people won't trust that it's real. If you want to be the key person, figure out how to do gold assays.
Kin die, Kings die, one day you shall die.
All things perish under the sun.
Old wisdom but still true. Someday the ideal that this republic was shall fall too, if it hasn't already.
The GunTuber Paul Harrell just posted two "Top five firearms for TEOTWAWKI," a short version at around 23 minutes and a two hour long version. He stayed away (in the short one anyway) from discussing what form the collapse may take, simply making some general points about why everyone would need firearms and what he should prioritize.
Many preppers speak of the "Zombie Apocalypse," but I doubt anyone seriously expects a zombie outbreak. On the other hand, there are people who believe in the Flat Earth, or that Joe Biden received 81 millions votes in 2020, so who knows for sure? My belief is that talking of zombies keeps discussion of a potentially dark topic light, and also represents the worst case scenario. That is, if you can handle a zombie outbreak you ought to be set for whatever actually happens.
As for myself, I would not call myself a prepper, although I do have cases of long shelf life rations in the garage. That's just common sense, especially living in a rural environment. I think everyone, urban or rural, should be prepared to withstand a two week disruption of service, at minimum. City people are by nature unprepared for this mindset, as their solution to every disruption is "Call the city and wait for the man in the truck to show up and fix it." Of course, if TEOTWAWKI does happen, two weeks is nothing but a cushion to get ready for the real survival scenario. I don't know what's coming, but I am not optimistic about it.
I don't understand how you can count anything about the US and its turnings while ignoring the greatest cataclysm the planet faced in maybe 3000 years, and that was the Great War. We are still living with its aftermath, as every issue people are facing now is still a result of that detritus of that societal upheaval where Europe lost faith in being. There was no single 20 year period there culminating in that; but okay, let's pretend. But the next 80 years produced more upheaval, not less, though you can argue that the fall of communism in Europe was the fourth turning of the cycle of almost endless war that was the 20th c.
In any case, where we are now isn't the fourth of anything. Globalism was founded on the fall of European communism and the rise of Chinese totalitarianism. It began in the 1990s, whether you date it to the fall of the Berlin Wall and Tiananmen Square or the fall of the Soviet Union. But globalism has not made it even 40 years yet.
A better range of times would look at French Revolution to Napoleon to Congress of Venna in 1814, approximately 30 years, which led Europe under basic stability for 30 years until the revolutions of 1848, which all failed and cemented the powers of their day for another 60 before the cataclysm.
War was a constant in that time, too.
The fall of European communism is much more like the Congress of Vienna, and our resistance to globalism now is much like 1848, perhaps with the same crushing outcome.
It's good to remember that the upheaval of our own 1960s involved as much violence and as much decadence and sickness in our cities in the 1970s. It took 16 years from the assassination of JFK until the election of RWR and things were swinging up again.
Quite disturbing!
Here is where I'd look for young heroes: the environmental movement. They may be lefty in outlook, but they do things with real stuff, and are big believers in self and community sufficiency. An alliance between the froggy Right and the eco hippie Left is in order.
Clearly there are grounds for alliance on the subject of the gurlimanification chemicals which blunt heroic potential. I would also note that the "Buy Local" battle cry of the greenies who form food coops is Trumpism Extra Strength. The eco hippies are also known to do things such as create local currencies.
Yes, the call for green energy could lead to a nightmare of interconnected grids for load balancing plus greater dependency on the grid in order to fuel electric cars.
But there is the flip side of green energy: solar panels to get off the grid. Biofuels to disconnect from Big Oil. Self sufficient communities to reduce the need for transportation, etc.
Wow. Well put.
Thanks for the link, Bill! I just cross-posted it to Tree of Woe readers.