All this is sound and fury signifying nothing if Taiwan has a handful of nuclear weapons. I personally believe this is why the CCP has not moved to date. They are perfectly capable of visualizing Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappearing in bright flashes along with more than 100M Chinese. In support of that notion I note that the two partners South Africa had in its (successful) nuclear weapons program were Israel... and Taiwan. That was four decades ago. Does anyone think that the Taiwanese today don't have that capability?
As an aside, I do believe the CCP will embark on a military adventure in the next year or so but the target will be Vietnam, not Taiwan. The installation of a CCP puppet government in Vietnam would staunch the loss of manufacturing from the CCP to Vietnam, provide coastal ports all along the South China Sea. bring the CCP navy much closer to the Singapore Straits and generally influence all of Southeast Asia in their direction. Also, neither the US, Australia, Japan, Taiwan nor South Korea could or would do much to help. A supply effort ala what the West has done with Ukraine would run afoul of a CCP declared exclusion zone. Would it be successful? I don't know, but it would be easier and with more strategic benefit to the CCP than inheriting an ruined Taiwan.
All this is sound and fury signifying nothing if Taiwan has a handful of nuclear weapons. I personally believe this is why the CCP has not moved to date. They are perfectly capable of visualizing Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappearing in bright flashes along with more than 100M Chinese. In support of that notion I note that the two partners South Africa had in its (successful) nuclear weapons program were Israel... and Taiwan. That was four decades ago. Does anyone think that the Taiwanese today don't have that capability?
As an aside, I do believe the CCP will embark on a military adventure in the next year or so but the target will be Vietnam, not Taiwan. The installation of a CCP puppet government in Vietnam would staunch the loss of manufacturing from the CCP to Vietnam, provide coastal ports all along the South China Sea. bring the CCP navy much closer to the Singapore Straits and generally influence all of Southeast Asia in their direction. Also, neither the US, Australia, Japan, Taiwan nor South Korea could or would do much to help. A supply effort ala what the West has done with Ukraine would run afoul of a CCP declared exclusion zone. Would it be successful? I don't know, but it would be easier and with more strategic benefit to the CCP than inheriting an ruined Taiwan.