All this is sound and fury signifying nothing if Taiwan has a handful of nuclear weapons. I personally believe this is why the CCP has not moved to date. They are perfectly capable of visualizing Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappearing in bright flashes along with more than 100M Chinese. In support of that notion I note that the two partners South Africa had in its (successful) nuclear weapons program were Israel... and Taiwan. That was four decades ago. Does anyone think that the Taiwanese today don't have that capability?
As an aside, I do believe the CCP will embark on a military adventure in the next year or so but the target will be Vietnam, not Taiwan. The installation of a CCP puppet government in Vietnam would staunch the loss of manufacturing from the CCP to Vietnam, provide coastal ports all along the South China Sea. bring the CCP navy much closer to the Singapore Straits and generally influence all of Southeast Asia in their direction. Also, neither the US, Australia, Japan, Taiwan nor South Korea could or would do much to help. A supply effort ala what the West has done with Ukraine would run afoul of a CCP declared exclusion zone. Would it be successful? I don't know, but it would be easier and with more strategic benefit to the CCP than inheriting an ruined Taiwan.
It's a thought, but the Three Gorges dam has turned into a catch-all shibboleth for those pushing the notion of a Taiwanese "victory" over the CCP. It isn't. First, I doubt very much that Taiwan has nukes ready to deploy, not because it lacks the knowledge, but
Second, Three Gorges was designed to be resistant nuclear attacks. It is a gravity dam, which means even if you punched a hole in it, it wouldn't collapse in the all-destroying catastrophe many envision.
Fourth, and the real argument killer, is that should Taiwan launch a successful strike that causes the catastrophe pictured by supporters (which I view as extremely unlikely) , Taiwan would cease to exist. China would not. Greatly damaged, yes, but not destroyed. This is not a MAD case scenario. I further strongly doubt there is any real support in Taiwan for such an outcome, or, for that matter, a strike on the mainland that would cause it.
In short, while the U.S. could conceivably pull it off, (but won't) Taiwan cannot, in any rational scenario.
Some good points, Bill. The question is perception. Are the Chinese willing to risk a mortal wound to their society to capture Taiwan? MAD did work for 50 years after all. Opinions can vary... I'm pretty sure the Russians would have left Ukraine alone if a few nukes had been lost in a 'tragic boating accident' in the 90's.
BTW, John, I am getting a notification from your email spam screener asking me to jump through some hoops in order to deliver mail from billquick@substack.com. If you want to get sub notifications from me, could you whitelist that addy? If not, no problem.
Well, as I say, MAD doesn't really apply to the Taiwan situation.
Personally, I've often mused to myself that it would be surprising if a couple of Soviet-era nukes had not taken a lake dunking. Of course, at this point their utility would be somewhat dubious. And MAD doesn't really apply there, either.
Russian air defenses are even better than Chinese, and considerably better than our own, especially considering the ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-500_missile_system ) new S-500 hypersonic systems that have been emplaced to protect Moscow. The Ukrainians have nothing capable of penetrating that screen carrying an ancient Soviet nuke.
"Are the Chinese willing to risk a mortal wound to their society to capture Taiwan?"
I think the real question is whether the Chinese need to take such a risk at all. I suspect that internal subversion within Taiwan, cyberattacks, and a potential blockade may be all it takes.
Finally, as far as a strike at Three Gorges, I found it interesting that while the wargames being discussed here did permit non-nuclear strikes on the mainland, none of their scenarios even looked at Three Gorges.
I suspect that causing a mass casualty event (low end estimate 10M dead) wasn't within the purview of the wargamers. Besides, it wouldn't have an immediate effect on the outcome.
Saw your note on the spam - I'll fix tomorrow when my brain can manage dealing with spam filters.
All this is sound and fury signifying nothing if Taiwan has a handful of nuclear weapons. I personally believe this is why the CCP has not moved to date. They are perfectly capable of visualizing Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappearing in bright flashes along with more than 100M Chinese. In support of that notion I note that the two partners South Africa had in its (successful) nuclear weapons program were Israel... and Taiwan. That was four decades ago. Does anyone think that the Taiwanese today don't have that capability?
As an aside, I do believe the CCP will embark on a military adventure in the next year or so but the target will be Vietnam, not Taiwan. The installation of a CCP puppet government in Vietnam would staunch the loss of manufacturing from the CCP to Vietnam, provide coastal ports all along the South China Sea. bring the CCP navy much closer to the Singapore Straits and generally influence all of Southeast Asia in their direction. Also, neither the US, Australia, Japan, Taiwan nor South Korea could or would do much to help. A supply effort ala what the West has done with Ukraine would run afoul of a CCP declared exclusion zone. Would it be successful? I don't know, but it would be easier and with more strategic benefit to the CCP than inheriting an ruined Taiwan.
It's a thought, but the Three Gorges dam has turned into a catch-all shibboleth for those pushing the notion of a Taiwanese "victory" over the CCP. It isn't. First, I doubt very much that Taiwan has nukes ready to deploy, not because it lacks the knowledge, but
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction ) because of U.S. pressure in the late 1980s. (I even read a post from somebody on Quora saying that the CIA came in and plugged the nuke facility with concrete).
Second, Three Gorges was designed to be resistant nuclear attacks. It is a gravity dam, which means even if you punched a hole in it, it wouldn't collapse in the all-destroying catastrophe many envision.
Third, Taiwan has no means of penetrating the distance between itself and Three Gorges with enough force to cause significant damage. Chinese air defenses are among the world's best ( https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/china-pulling-ahead-russia-air-defense-technology-192820 ), and any attacker from Taiwan would have to run a 1300 km gauntlet of them.
Taiwan claims their ( https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-relations-military-missiles-taipei-beijing-1715957 ) Yun Feng supersonic cruise missile can (barely) reach the dam, but there is little evidence in the real world of payload capability and so on.
Fourth, and the real argument killer, is that should Taiwan launch a successful strike that causes the catastrophe pictured by supporters (which I view as extremely unlikely) , Taiwan would cease to exist. China would not. Greatly damaged, yes, but not destroyed. This is not a MAD case scenario. I further strongly doubt there is any real support in Taiwan for such an outcome, or, for that matter, a strike on the mainland that would cause it.
In short, while the U.S. could conceivably pull it off, (but won't) Taiwan cannot, in any rational scenario.
Some good points, Bill. The question is perception. Are the Chinese willing to risk a mortal wound to their society to capture Taiwan? MAD did work for 50 years after all. Opinions can vary... I'm pretty sure the Russians would have left Ukraine alone if a few nukes had been lost in a 'tragic boating accident' in the 90's.
BTW, John, I am getting a notification from your email spam screener asking me to jump through some hoops in order to deliver mail from billquick@substack.com. If you want to get sub notifications from me, could you whitelist that addy? If not, no problem.
Well, as I say, MAD doesn't really apply to the Taiwan situation.
Personally, I've often mused to myself that it would be surprising if a couple of Soviet-era nukes had not taken a lake dunking. Of course, at this point their utility would be somewhat dubious. And MAD doesn't really apply there, either.
Russian air defenses are even better than Chinese, and considerably better than our own, especially considering the ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-500_missile_system ) new S-500 hypersonic systems that have been emplaced to protect Moscow. The Ukrainians have nothing capable of penetrating that screen carrying an ancient Soviet nuke.
BTW, Russia has added another layer to the Moscow air defense within the past few days: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/20/russia-moscow-air-defenses-ukraine/
"Are the Chinese willing to risk a mortal wound to their society to capture Taiwan?"
I think the real question is whether the Chinese need to take such a risk at all. I suspect that internal subversion within Taiwan, cyberattacks, and a potential blockade may be all it takes.
Finally, as far as a strike at Three Gorges, I found it interesting that while the wargames being discussed here did permit non-nuclear strikes on the mainland, none of their scenarios even looked at Three Gorges.
I suspect that causing a mass casualty event (low end estimate 10M dead) wasn't within the purview of the wargamers. Besides, it wouldn't have an immediate effect on the outcome.
Saw your note on the spam - I'll fix tomorrow when my brain can manage dealing with spam filters.
There was a lot that the gamers decided wasn't in their purview. I'll be discussing that in my analysis on Monday.